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Indonesia Council Open Conference 2025
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The Jokowi Effect during the 2024 Indonesia Presidential Election: Incumbency Advantage, Voter Behavior and the Future of Indonesian Democracy

Organised Panel

Organised Panel

9:00 am

09 July 2025

Forum 2 (Melbourne Connect)

Session 3: Democracy Nexus in Indonesia: Problems and the Ways Ahead

One Conference streams

Politics & Law

Submission Description

The concept of incumbency advantage in elections has been interpreted as the incumbent's ability to allocate and leverage available resources to build a more robust electoral position compared to their opponents. In essence, this concept is most pertinent when the incumbent seeks re-election. Incumbency advantage is widely recognised as one of the most relevant frameworks for understanding the power dynamics of sitting presidents during election periods. However, prior studies have not thoroughly explored scenarios where the incumbent president does not seek re-election but instead allocates their power, resources, and accumulated political capital to enhance his equity of incumbency while signalling his heir. This study examines the phenomenon of incumbency effects in the context of Indonesia's 2024 presidential election, focusing on the impact of President Joko Widodo's (Jokowi) to Prabowo-Gibran victory. 

Presenters